2013 Archives: Moving Parts

Moving Parts Intro/Primer

Entrenched thought processes. Entrenched sets of rankings. Entrenched views. Entrenched allegiances to conferences and teams. These are all the enemies of critical thinking over the course of a college football season. Making sense of the second half of the season is one of the most important tasks any college football observer can perform. "Moving Parts" tackles this endeavor head-on.

By Matt Zemek E-mail Matt Zemek Follow the Weekly Affirmation ... @MattZemek_CFN More college football coverage: additional analysis and commentary at Campus Insiders MOVING PARTS: THE JOURNEY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF A COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON Introduction Welcome to a new feature at CFN. “Moving Parts” perfectly refers to the second half of a college football season. Resumes that were thin, incomplete or misleading in the first half of a season begin to take on their true identities in the second half. Longtime CFN readers will know that the Weekly Affirmation has steadfastly believed in not having any rankings whatsoever – for the national title race, the Heisman, and for anything else that is able to be ranked – until the month of November. Yet, a large part of the college football world is (and has been) conditioned to value September and October rankings. The problem that often arises from a season-long emphasis on rankings is that the timing of a team’s loss is held against it or (alternatively) used to help it in late November. Similarly, if Team A starts a season with a high ranking and keeps winning, other more impressive teams (Team B, Team C) find it hard to leap Team A even if they produce better resumes. College football is a messy sport, and as long as there’s a four-team playoff with a selection committee (as opposed to an eight-team playoff comprised of major conference champions, the Group of Five champion, and the two best at-large teams), arguments will inevitably define our November weeks and our early-December weekends. Arguments are part of this sport, like it or not. What is the purpose of “Moving Parts”? Simple – to make arguments clearer and more defined. No, this is not an attempt to end arguments with definitive answers. “Moving Parts” aims, more than anything else, to ensure that each week’s set of developments is viewed critically and with fresh eyes. Whether you agree or disagree with the notion that rankings shouldn’t exist until November, it should be a universal point of agreement in the college football community that rankings should not have to be static from week to week. Team A doesn’t have to be in the top two or top four in the middle of November. As long as it’s in the top two or four on the first or second Sunday morning of December, it has reached its goal. If intellectual independence and genuine honesty were to govern the weekly rankings processes, we would see substantial shifts each week, but that just doesn’t happen. There’s an entrenched notion in the minds of voters that if Team A wins this week and holds X ranking, a win next week should preserve that ranking. Such a line of thought turns a college football season into a set of fixed principles instead of what it should be: an exercise in seeing the landscape afresh each week, moving teams up or down as necessary. “Moving Parts” places an emphasis on the word moving, because everything about this new feature is intended to militate against the entrenched nature of thought as it pertains to the rankings process and perceptions of what a record or schedule reflects over the course of a college football season. For the next several Wednesdays through Dec. 4, keep your eyes on the “Moving Parts” in the second half of a season. Be willing to see things anew. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE  “Moving Parts” will be divided into subsections on the various conferences as they relate to the national picture. We’ll provide notes about a team’s record and resume, discussing how the week’s upcoming games and past results can both reshape the way that team is seen. Florida State-Clemson is obviously the featured game of the ACC and, moreover, week eight. Winning this game is its own reward for all the obvious reasons. How should the Seminoles and Tigers be perceived as the season goes along? Both teams face other tests – especially against in-state rivals from the SEC – that should enable FSU and Clemson to more sharply define their identities, for better or worse. In many ways, a highly crucial part of the ACC stretch run will be the extent to which Miami and Virginia Tech respond to pressure. If the Hurricanes and Hokies both win 10 games and look good in the process, the resumes of FSU and/or Clemson will grow in quality. This fleshes out a basic component of “Moving Parts”: One can’t always say that the champion of Conference X will easily and clearly deserve to get a BCS title game shot over the champion of Conference Y. This is particularly apparent in a potential debate between the ACC champion and the Pac-12 champion if both teams were to go 13-0. How Virginia Tech and Miami perform will have something to do with the way you – and I – evaluate Florida State and Clemson. BIG 12 CONFERENCE The utter chaos which pervades the Big 12 race – creating a confused and cluttered dynamic – makes it hard to point to specific tension points in the race because… well… the whole league is a tension point. The unbeaten teams in the league (Baylor and Texas Tech) have not yet proven themselves. Power schools such as Texas and Oklahoma have been bloodied to a considerable extent. Schools felt to be leading contenders for the league title before the season began – TCU and especially Oklahoma State – have stumbled badly. The league’s identity will gain more definition next week, in which we’ll explore some possibilities in greater detail. BIG TEN CONFERENCE When Wisconsin whacked Northwestern, the Badgers planted their flag and made it hard to contest the notion that they’re the second-best team in the conference. All eyes are on Ohio State right now, and while the Buckeyes had to like the fact that Wisconsin looks as good as it does, the Buckeyes also had to lament the way in which Northwestern folded. An assessment of OSU depends in part (not entirely, but in part) on the strength of Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan this season. The Big Ten certainly looks like a thin league for yet another season, but perhaps the next six weeks will be filled with surprises and plot twists. PAC-12 CONFERENCE  Stanford’s loss to Utah was unquestionably bad news for the Pac-12, especially league favorite Oregon. Oregon needs to beat Stanford on Nov. 7 in order to remain close to the driver’s seat for the BCS National Championship Game, so it was in the Ducks’ best interest for Stanford to be unbeaten heading into that game. Oregon also plays UCLA on Oct. 26 and has already drubbed Washington. The Ducks need Stanford, UCLA and Washington to be really good. With that in mind, there are two games this weekend the Ducks will certainly pay attention to: UCLA-Stanford and Washington-Arizona State. The outcomes of these kinds of measuring-stick showdowns certainly matter. What also matters (or at least, SHOULD matter) for any discriminating college football observer is the quality of these games. If the Pac-12 puts on a show and these teams from the upper tier of the conference make the best possible impression, Oregon – should it go 13-0 – would rightly deserve to be upgraded. Perhaps the Florida State-Clemson winner would deserve to be upgraded based on its own conquests and achievements. If two teams upgrade themselves at the same time, so be it. The task of the observer is to weigh them as fairly and fully as possible. SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE Want to evaluate Alabama in the national title picture? Watch Auburn-Texas A&M this weekend. Two Alabama opponents will magnify, in one way or another, the quality of the Crimson Tide’s portfolio. The same holds true for LSU’s game at Ole Miss. The SEC East is a cloudy world at the moment, but if one team heals up (or straightens up, or both) and looks like an Atlanta-bound juggernaut in late November, the SEC West champion’s resume would be bolstered to an even greater degree. We’ll see how the SEC’s foremost challengers change the composition of Alabama’s resume in the coming weeks. THE OTHER FBS CONFERENCES How seriously should The American be viewed as a conference? UCF-Louisville this Friday night will have a lot to say on the matter. The Mountain West is immersed in a quiet period right now before bigger battles on Oct. 26 and beyond. The same holds true for the MAC, given that Northern Illinois’s most challenging contests lie in November. The Sun Belt and Conference USA possess no national players, so the only remaining point of intrigue in the upper reaches of the FBS concerns Notre Dame’s ability to perhaps sneak into a BCS bowl. The Irish will probably have to run the table; if they go 9-3, the composition of their resume would be worth examining in greater detail. That’s a brief run-through for the first edition of “Moving Parts.” Next week, we’ll deepen the focus on various teams and conferences as they provide more information for the mind (and eye) to process.

Week 14 At this point in a college football season, the mid-level dimensions of conference races take on less importance, as the focus shifts exclusively to the high-end teams in each conference. In week 14, the various conferences will sweat out a few final deathmatches, as reputations remain to be affirmed or torn to shreds. How will the Moving Parts sort themselves out? By Matt Zemek E-mail Matt Zemek Follow the Weekly Affirmation ... @MattZemek_CFN More college football coverage: additional analysis and commentary at Campus Insiders Read the Moving Parts series premiere/introduction/primer. THE NEXT-TO-LAST PARTS: APPROACHING THE ENDGAME This is the penultimate edition of Moving Parts for the 2013 college football season. On the last weekend before Conference Championship Saturday (plus the MAC Championship Game on Friday, Dec. 6), it’s time to set various pieces in order. THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK In next week’s season finale of Moving Parts, some final verdicts can be advanced, though not necessarily set in stone. This week, various FBS teams will complete the race to the finish line in their respective divisions. Championship matchups will be set in the ACC and SEC, while those two conferences watch with great anticipation (and anxiety) as Clemson faces South Carolina in an argument-resolving contest. The Georgia-Georgia Tech game will be diminished by the injury to Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray, and Florida State-Florida will become interesting only if Jameis Winston is charged with a crime. This is normally a much bigger weekend in ACC-SEC competition, but in 2013, only Tigers-Gamecocks occupies the main-event stage. In the Big Ten and the Pac-12, conference title game dance cards have been filled, but the four schools that will be competing on Dec. 7 need to win this Saturday to consolidate the gains they’ve made in recent weeks. In the Big 12 and The American, no conference championship games await, meaning that week 14 should be relatively quiet, with one or two possible exceptions. In the Mid-American Conference, Bowling Green and Buffalo will play to determine Northern Illinois’s last formidable opponent on the road to a possible BCS bowl. In the Mountain West, Utah State should clinch the MWC Mountain Division championship, while Fresno State will try to fend off San Jose State on a day when the Spartans will be trying to become a bowl-eligible team. We haven’t been talking about Conference USA this season because the league was never a factor in the BCS race, but East Carolina-Marshall (East) and Tulane-Rice (West) will decide the two division champions in that conference. In the Sun Belt, Louisiana-Lafayette can clinch the league championship with a victory on home turf against Louisiana-Monroe. These are the broad storylines across the nation. Let’s take a closer look at the stakes for each BCS-minded conference in week 14. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE  Virginia isn’t likely to beat Virginia Tech this Saturday, but if the Cavaliers somehow pull off the upset, the ACC Coastal Division could experience one more significant plot twist. Given that the Coastal is now a more volatile division due to Virginia Tech’s fall from power, one should perhaps expect the unexpected in week 14. Yet, Virginia’s utter lack of quality points to a Hokie triumph, meaning that either Virginia Tech or Duke will represent the Coastal against Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. Let’s make this distinction: Virginia Tech would be much more likely than Duke to give Florida State a game (at least for a half). Bud Foster’s defense might slow down the Seminoles long enough to create a three-quarter game, though a 60-minute battle on even terms would probably be too much to ask of Virginia Tech. However, while the Hokies might create better television than Duke on Dec. 7, the Blue Devils would produce a better scenario for the ACC if they reached Charlotte with a 10-2 record. A Duke loss to North Carolina would put a team with at least four losses (probably Virginia Tech) and possibly five (Georgia Tech) into the ACC title game. The Coastal and the league at large do not want “hashtag #goacc” perceptions to become even more entrenched. Duke going 10-2 would tell the nation that one Coastal team actually managed to tend to its business in 2013. Yet, while the Coastal drama is obviously an important point of focus, the really big game for the ACC this week is Clemson’s visit to Gamecock Country. Clemson is the one non-Florida State team that has improved the ACC’s image on a national level over the past three seasons. Virginia Tech was the standard-bearer for a handful of years that carried through 2010. In 2012 and 2013, Clemson and FSU have taken over. Clemson made history for the ACC by beating LSU (2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl) and a pre-injury version of Georgia (2013 season opener) in consecutive games. Yet, the inability of a third heavyweight to emerge in the 2013 ACC (Virginia Tech, Miami) means that the Tigers have to make one more statement in order for the ACC to feel reasonably good about its football identity this season. Clemson has enabled the ACC to claim some scalps in head-to-head competition with the SEC, but the Tigers’ consistent failures against South Carolina have limited the extent to which they can crow about their prowess against the nation’s best FBS conference. A win in Columbia, S.C., would do wonders for Clemson, affirming all the good things Dabo Swinney has done over the past three seasons. A loss would give the ACC’s critics ample reason to say that Florida State’s best win of 2013 isn’t as special as it was originally made out to be. A blowout loss would make it very reasonable to contend that the ACC was a one-program conference this season. Much is at stake in Tigers-Gamecocks. BIG 12 CONFERENCE Did the Big 12 want Baylor to beat Oklahoma State? Sure it did. Yet, the result is hardly a disaster for the conference. For one thing, the Big 12 can point to two high-quality teams, not just one. Oklahoma State’s now part of that club. Moreover, if OSU wins the league and goes to the Fiesta Bowl, Baylor becomes an attractive candidate for an at-large BCS game. The Big 12 might now get two teams in the BCS bowl parade, not just one. Elsewhere, Oklahoma’s victory over Kansas State – as mentioned last week – changes the way in which the Sooners should be evaluated. Oklahoma is now more of a quality team – and hence, a quality win – than it was a week ago. All in all, week 13 wasn’t that bad a week for the Big 12. There’s more depth in the league than there was in the middle of November, and if Texas can beat Texas Tech on Thanksgiving, the league’s profile could move upward at the very end of the season. Baylor, of course, needs to handle TCU this Saturday in order for the Big 12 to feel good about where it stands. This is a forward-looking statement (one that goes beyond the reach of week 14), but on Dec. 7, Oklahoma and Texas – as big road underdogs – will need to avoid getting blown out by Oklahoma State and Baylor if the Big 12 really wants to be seen as a conference that produced more than two excellent teams in 2013. BIG TEN CONFERENCE Minnesota’s loss is the Big Ten’s gain. The Golden Gophers have authored one of the best stories in all of American sports – not just college football – this season, but their needs are taking a backseat to the conference’s priorities these days. The Big Ten needed Wisconsin to beat Minnesota in week 13, and the Badgers did their solemn duty. Now, Jim Delany wants Michigan State to handle the Gophers in week 14, so that a Sparty-Buckeye Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 7 can be as significant as humanly possible. As long as Wisconsin doesn’t trip up against Penn State and Ohio State puts Michigan out of its misery, the Big Ten will be able to tout three superb teams heading into week 15. Three upper-tier teams would eclipse the ACC’s total (two, with Florida State and Clemson), and it could eclipse the Big 12’s total unless Oklahoma and Texas make some very bold statements in the weeks to come. PAC-12 CONFERENCE  The Oregon Ducks certainly acted as though they didn’t want to be part of the Rose Bowl this past weekend, but the problem for the Pac-12 Conference is that UO dragged down the league’s reputation. Oregon never conceded a bad loss under Chip Kelly as it did under Mark Helfrich this past weekend. Oregon worked its way up the ladder in 2009, en route to the program’s first Rose Bowl appearance since the 1995 game against Penn State. The Ducks then went unbeaten in the 2010 regular season; 11-2 in the 2011 regular season, with their losses coming against LSU and USC; and 11-1 in 2012, with their only loss coming against league champion Stanford. Dropping this game to Arizona – and by 26 points at that – leaves a scar not just on the UO program, but on the Pac-12 as a whole. After week 13’s bloodbath, the Pac-12 might now have only one BCS bowl team. Oregon is anything but a guarantee at this point, and it’s hard to accord the Ducks the same lofty status they quite legitimately enjoyed through week 12. If either Stanford or Arizona State stumbles in week 14, a season that once looked so promising for the Pac-12 on a number of levels would become conspicuously unfulfilling. SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE Last week, the SEC needed Texas A&M and Missouri to win. The league gained one of its two desired results. Now, the SEC needs Alabama and Missouri to come through. Mike Slive surely wants Auburn to put up a fight, but he wants the Crimson Tide to remain unbeaten at the end of the 2013 Iron Bowl. Slive then wants Missouri to fend off Texas A&M in prime time, setting up a showdown between the 11-1 Tigers and the 12-0 Tide in Atlanta on Dec. 7. If South Carolina can also beat Clemson, a ho-hum SEC season (compared to past years) wouldn’t look all that bad, either. All in all, if the SEC gets all three of its wishes this weekend – a close Alabama win in a classic; a Missouri win; a South Carolina win – the conference would unquestionably retain the honor of being college football’s best in 2013. If the SEC goes 1 for 3 but gets the close Alabama win, the conference would probably still be satisfied with its prospects, since the Tide would be favored to win the SEC and then claim yet another national title. If the SEC goes 1 for 3 and an Auburn win is part of the equation, it will be fascinating to see how the result is spun and digested throughout the Southeastern United States. OTHER FBS CONFERENCES The Mid-American Conference wants Bowling Green and Buffalo to put their best feet forward on Friday afternoon, in what is essentially the MAC East championship game for 2013. The American shouldn’t sweat week 14. UCF should mash South Florida to remain unbeaten in the conference. The next big game for the league is Louisville-Cincinnati in week 15. The Mountain West Conference was hurt by Boise State’s loss to San Diego State. Utah State – now in line to clinch the MWC's Mountain Division with a win over Wyoming this upcoming weekend – is playing without star quarterback Chuckie Keeton. This would make the first MWC Championship Game on Dec. 7 a television dud. All the MWC can hope for is that Fresno State avoids one more upset bid on Friday afternoon against San Jose State.  Finale This weekend, a few teams will have a chance to change the way in which they are assessed (and remembered) this season. However, most of the teams in AQ conferences have run the race. The bowl games lie ahead, but based on the available evidence, one can render some limited yet textured verdicts on most teams from the AQ realm. It's the season finale of Moving Parts. By Matt Zemek E-mail Matt Zemek Follow the Weekly Affirmation ... @MattZemek_CFN More college football coverage: additional analysis and commentary at Campus Insiders Read the Moving Parts series premiere/introduction/primer. THE FINAL MOVEMENTS This is the last edition of Moving Parts for the 2013 college football season, featuring an attempt to size up the AQ conferences. Remember, this is not a conference race breakdown, and in the midst of the Auburn/Missouri-versus-Ohio State discussion, this is not an examination of polls or rankings, either. Measuring the conferences, which represents a central part of the process of measuring the quality of various FBS teams, forms the heart of Moving Parts, which will return next season after week seven, in the middle of October. THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK In this season finale of Moving Parts, what can definitively be said about the various AQ conferences? On a general level, none of them were particularly special, to say the least. The SEC is still the best conference in the country, but it’s more accurate to say that the league is “less flawed” than the other flawed conferences in the FBS. Missouri and Auburn have added a considerable measure of heft to the league this season, but LSU, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss (a disappointment in relative terms) have detracted from the SEC to an even greater extent. The Pac-12 appeared to be ready to join the SEC on the mountaintop in early October, but Washington and especially Oregon State struggled. UCLA wobbled a bit before rebounding to go 9-3. Oregon and Stanford, the heavyweights, both lost twice, usually in unflattering fashion. Only Stanford’s loss at USC was what one could call a “noble loss,” and even then, Stanford frittered away a chance to take control of that contest in the fourth quarter. Only Arizona State added a great deal of value to the league this season, and even then, the Sun Devils need to be able to split with Stanford this Saturday (having lost to the Cardinal in September) in order to say that they belong with the big boys in the West. The Big 12’s best non-conference accomplishment was Oklahoma’s win at Notre Dame, a solid but not spectacular triumph. Oklahoma State and Baylor have established themselves as fairly good teams, but we’ll have to wait for the BCS bowls to see how the Cowboys and Bears measure up on a national scale. The Big Ten took a hit when Wisconsin slipped on the banana peel against Penn State this past weekend. Michigan State now has to put on a show against Ohio State, win or lose, to earn respect on a national level. Nebraska’s blowout loss at home to Iowa underscored the lack of quality depth in the Big Ten this season. Ohio State is the king, Michigan State the prince, and Wisconsin the now-discredited (at least to a point) court adviser. The ACC sure feels like Florida State and the 13 dwarfs after Clemson committed six turnovers in yet another loss to South Carolina. The Tigers’ win on opening night against Georgia was a terrific result for the ACC, on the heels of Clemson’s victory over LSU in the 2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Yet, Clemson wasn’t particularly good ever since that occasion. If Duke doesn’t put up a fight against Florida State this Saturday in Charlotte, the ACC won’t be able to tout itself as a whole. The bevy of bowl bids will bring revenue to the league, but having 18 million 7-5 or 6-6 teams should not be seen as a point of pride for any FBS conference. The American has not enjoyed a very good season. Its almost-certain BCS bowl representative, UCF, barely skated by South Florida last Friday. The Knights barely beat Temple and lost their big non-conference game at home to South Carolina. Louisville was great in September but has looked pedestrian in October and November. Cincinnati has come on strong late in the season, and the Bearcats deserve credit for that resurgence. Yet, if they don’t beat Louisville on Thursday, they won’t have any significant accomplishments to point to in 2013. Houston played hard even in its defeats, and probably exceeded expectations more than any program other than UCF. The rest of the league, though, was absolutely awful. Rutgers could very well go 6-6, but few teams in the nation have played more poorly over the past six weeks than the Scarlet Knights. This just wasn’t a particularly good year for any conference in terms of improving upon last season. The Mountain West took a step back, with only Fresno State losing fewer than four games. In Conference USA, no team lost fewer than three. The MAC might get another BCS bowl payday with Northern Illinois, but in terms of raw quality, the league didn’t do much of anything, especially out of conference. Ball State beat Virginia but lost to North Texas. Bowling Green lost to Indiana and Mississippi State. Northern Illinois won at Iowa… and that’s the best thing the league did when playing AQ conference teams. That’s the national rundown. Now, let’s size up the AQ conferences so that you can compare them all. ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE – 14 TEAMS SUMMARY: 1 elite team (Florida State), 1 really good team (Clemson), 1 above-average team (Duke), 2 slightly above-average teams (Virginia Tech and Miami), 6 average teams (Syracuse, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh), 1 below-average team (Wake Forest), and 2 terrible teams (North Carolina State and Virginia). The only thing missing from Florida State’s portfolio is a strong win over a quality non-conference opponent. However, the Seminoles have clocked just about every opponent they’ve played, with the slight exception of Boston College. This is an elite team, although a 28-point loss in a bowl game would strip away that distinction. (Obviously, that’s not likely.) Clemson is a B-plus team, which translates to “really good.” The Tigers own that scalp against Georgia, but they received a thumping from Florida State and lost focus against South Carolina. This team will need to play well in its bowl game to uphold its “really good” label. A recurrence of the 2012 Orange Bowl versus West Virginia would put Clemson in the “above-average” category. Duke might look feeble on some occasions, but the Blue Devils have taken care of business too many times to be thought of as anything less than solidly “above-average.” Duke offers a case in which a gleaming record, no matter how fortuitous, must be acknowledged as the achievement it verily is. Virginia Tech and Miami stumbled so badly in November that they can’t be seen in a particularly favorable light. Miami did beat Florida, but that resilient performance marked the exception rather than the rule for the Hurricanes against similarly talented opponents. Barring a murderous schedule or some noticeable achievement, 7-5 and 6-6 teams can’t be seen as much more than average. That’s where six of the ACC’s 14 teams exist. Wake Forest could have been 6-6 with a few clutch plays here and there, but the Demon Deacons fell short. North Carolina State and Virginia were relentlessly bad this season. “Terrible” is not an excessive or hyperbolic designation for the Wolfpack and Cavaliers. BIG 12 CONFERENCE – 10 TEAMS SUMMARY: 2 possibly elite teams (Oklahoma State and Baylor), 2 possibly above-average teams (Oklahoma and Texas), 2 average teams (Kansas State and Texas Tech), 3 below-average teams (West Virginia, Iowa State, TCU), and 1 terrible team (Kansas). The Big 12, since it doesn’t play a conference championship game, features a few more Moving Parts than the leagues that have a title tilt this weekend. Oklahoma State and Baylor are currently “really good teams,” but they frankly need to win this weekend against Oklahoma and Texas, respectively. They then need to win their bowl games against formidable competition in order to be seen as genuinely elite teams this season. Oklahoma and Texas sit between the “above-average” and “slightly above-average” labels based on their first 11 games. The Sooners definitely enhanced their profile with a win over Kansas State in game 11, and Texas did much the same thing by disposing of Texas Tech. This weekend, the Sooners and Longhorns don’t have to win in order to reach the “above average” designation, but they do need to play well. If both teams get crushed, anything beyond a “slightly above-average” description would be far too generous for the Sooners and Bevo’s Boys. Kansas State failed to reach the “above-average” level when it suffered a decisive loss at home to Oklahoma. Texas Tech produced a great first half of the season and a terrible second half, which leaves a “straight C” in Grading The Games parlance. That’s an average season if one ever existed. West Virginia, Iowa State, and TCU endured a lot of bad losses. Kansas merits a lower designation because it absorbed even more of them and won only one conference game. BIG TEN CONFERENCE – 12 TEAMS SUMMARY: 2 possibly elite teams (Ohio State and Michigan State), 1 really good team (Wisconsin), 3 slightly above-average teams (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska), 2 average teams (Michigan and Penn State), 3 below-average teams (Northwestern, Indiana, Illinois), and 1 terrible team (Purdue). Remember, this is not a rankings-based examination of teams, nor is it a BCS guidepost/roadmap/recommendation. The Buckeyes would deserve to be in the national title game if they beat Michigan State. As far as evaluating Ohio State as a team, though, we don’t yet know just how good Urban Meyer’s young men are. Ohio State simply hasn’t faced many challenges, in or out of conference; Wisconsin’s the only one to this point in time. We’ll have to see what OSU does this Saturday in Indianapolis, and how it performs in its bowl game as well. Much the same applies to Michigan State, a team that lost its big non-conference game at Notre Dame. Wisconsin went from being “possibly elite” to “really good” after its loss to Penn State. Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska deserve a little more credit (and stature) than Michigan and Penn State for winning eight games instead of seven. Northwestern, Indiana and Illinois had their moments, but not many of them. Purdue was… well… Purdue. PAC-12 CONFERENCE – 12 TEAMS SUMMARY: 3 really good teams (Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona State), 2 above-average teams (UCLA and USC), 1 slightly above-average team (Washington), 3 average teams (Arizona, Oregon State, and Washington State), 2 below-average teams (Utah and Colorado), and 1 terrible team (California). It’s very hard to call Oregon or Stanford “elite” in light of the absence of major non-conference conquests on the Ducks’ and Cardinal’s resumes. Two losses have diminished both teams, creating a downward pull on the league’s overall quality in 2013. Arizona State deserves to be seen in the same light as UO and Stanford within the context of this season. That said, a decisive loss (maybe not a blowout, but a game that is well in hand for Stanford with 10 minutes remaining in regulation) might knock down the Sun Devils a peg. They lost to Stanford in September and did not play Oregon. UCLA and USC were simply solid – nothing more or less. Washington’s eight wins give the Huskies that “slightly-above average” label (a B-minus, essentially), whereas Arizona, Oregon State, and Washington State are comfortably average. Colorado’s season was more encouraging than Utah’s season, relative to where the two programs began the 2013 campaign, but both teams fall in the same boat. California was obviously terrible from start to finish. SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE – 14 TEAMS SUMMARY: 2 elite teams (Alabama and Auburn), 1 possibly elite team (Missouri), 2 really good teams (South Carolina and LSU), 2 above-average teams (Georgia and Texas A&M), 1 slightly above-average team (Vanderbilt), 2 average teams (Ole Miss and Mississippi State), 3 below-average teams (Tennessee, Florida and Arkansas), and 1 terrible team (Kentucky).  Alabama’s body of work this season has not been spectacular – Auburn has a better resume – but it is hard (if not impossible) to contest the claim that the Crimson Tide still occupy the top tier of FBS teams in the United States. Missouri could be called an elite team right now, but the Tigers didn’t play any of the SEC West’s top three teams. A good performance against Auburn, win or lose, would cement Mizzou’s status as an elite team, but a decisive loss would relegate Gary Pinkel’s pupils to the “really good” category. South Carolina and LSU were just a notch below the elites in the SEC. Categorizations become really tricky in the middle third of the league. Georgia was banged up for much of the season and beat LSU head to head, but the Dawgs’ poor performance on defense means that UGA’s injury excuses on offense can only retain so much legitimacy. Texas A&M didn’t beat any of the SEC’s top five teams, but the Aggies did push most of the ones they played (LSU being the conspicuous exception). Vanderbilt turned in a great season when measured by the program’s long-term standards and results, but the Commodores won three of their eight games against UMass, Austin Peay, and UAB. Ole Miss started the season in style, but the Rebels were handled easily by Alabama and Missouri. Their loss to Mississippi State served as a legitimate embarrassment. Tennessee, Florida and Arkansas all suffered through luckless seasons, but bad luck can’t change the reality of being a below-average team. Kentucky went 0-8 in the SEC, 2-10 overall, even though its defense really wasn’t all that bad. Ohhhh, that offense. THE AMERICAN SUMMARY: 2 above-average teams (UCF and Louisville), 2 slightly above-average teams (Cincinnati and Houston), 2 below-average teams (Rutgers and SMU), 4 terrible teams (Connecticut, South Florida, Memphis, and Temple). The best team in The American lost its big non-conference game at home and barely escaped the bottom-feeders in the league. That puts in perspective the kind of year the AAC has endured. Houston’s hard-fought and narrow losses to UCF and Louisville represented two bright spots for the league. Those games pointed to a measure of quality depth in the conference. However, Houston just as clearly lost steam in the second half of the season. Cincinnati is the intriguing team in the AAC, even now. If the Bearcats can beat Louisville, they would deserve to move from “slightly above-average” to “above-average.” Rutgers might finish 6-6 with a win over South Florida this weekend, but the extent of the Scarlet Knights’ collapse puts them below the college football Mendoza line. SMU could lift itself to “average” if it can upset UCF this weekend, but don’t bet on that happening. The bottom four teams in the league have all played cringe-worthy football for the vast majority of 2013.